1. How are real GDP growth and the change in unemployment rate related in the graph from 1948-2023?
   1. Why do we expect this relationship?
   2. How much growth is needed to keep the unemployment rate constant?
   3. How much does the unemployment rate increase if there is no growth?
   4. Do the graphs for each individual time period differ much?
2. How are the unemployment rate and the change in inflation related in the graph from 1948 to 2023?
   1. Why do we expect this relationship?
   2. What is the natural rate of unemployment in the total graph and in each time period? What does this mean in words?
   3. What is the difference between the three time periods?
   4. Do you think the Phillips Curve is a useful policy tool?

Change up 5 4 . . ... .. -2.0 0.0 60 80 10.0 -4.0 . . ....... -1 -2 y = -0.4175x + 1.3015... R2 = 0.6384 -3\fFRED Graph Observations Federal Reserve Economic Data Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org Help: https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org Economic Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis UNRATE Unemployment Rate, Percent, Annual, Seasonally A CPIAUCSL_PC1 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, Percent GDPC1_PC1 Real Gross Domestic Product, Percent Change from Year Ago, Annual Frequency: Annual observation_date UNRATE Change Inf CPIAUCSL_PC1 GDPC1_PC1 Change up 1948-01-01 3.8 7.7 4.1 1949-01-01 6.1 -8.7 -1 -0.6 2.3 1950-01-01 5.2 2 1.1 8.7 -0.8 1951-01-01 3.3 6.9 7.9 8 -1.9 1952-01-01 3 5.7 2.3 4.1 0.3 1953-01-01 2.9 -1.5 0.8 4.7 -0.1 1954-01-01 5.6 -0.4 0.4 -0.6 2.7 1955-01-01 4.4 -0.6 -0.3 7.1 -1.2 1956-01-01 4.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 -0.2 1957-01-01 4.3 1.9 3.4 2.1 0.2 1958-01-01 6.8 -0.7 2.7 -0.7 2.5 1959-01-01 5.5 -1.8 0.9 6.9 -1.4 1960-01-01 5.5 0.6 1.5 2.6 0.1 1961-01-01 6.7 -0.4 1.1 2.6 1.2 1962-01-01 5.6 0. 1 1.2 6.1 -1.1 1963-01-01 5.6 0.1 1.3 4.4 0.1 1964-01-01 5.2 0.1 1.3 5.8 0.5 1965-01-01 4.5 0.3 1.6 6.5 -0.7 1966-01-01 3.8 1.4 3 6.6 -0.71967-01-01 3.8 0.2 2.8 1968-01-01 2.7 3.6 0.1 1.5 4.2 1969-01-01 4.9 -0.3 3.5 1.2 5.4 1970-01-01 3.1 5 -0.1 0.4 5.9 1971-01-01 0.2 6 1.5 -1.7 4.2 1972-01-01 3.3 5.6 -1 3.3 1973-01-01 5.3 -0.4 4.9 3 6.3 1974-01-01 5.6 5.6 -0.7 4.8 11 1975-01-01 -0.5 8.5 0.8 -1.9 9.1 1976-01-01 -0.2 7.7 2.8 -3.4 5.8 1977-01-01 5.4 7.1 -0.8 0.7 6.5 1978-01-01 4.6 6.1 -0.7 1.2 7.6 1979-01-01 5.5 5.9 -1 3.6 11.3 1980-01-01 3.2 7.2 0.2 2.2 13.5 1981-01-01 0.3 1.3 7.6 -3.1 10.4 1982-01-01 2.5 0.4 9.7 -4.2 6.2 1983-01-01 1.8 2.1 9.6 -3 3.2 1984-01-01 4.6 -0. 1 7.5 1.2 4.4 1985-01-01 7.2 7.2 -2. 1 -0.8 3.5 1986-01-01 4.2 7 -0.3 -1.6 1.9 1987-01-01 3.5 6.2 0.2 1.6 3.6 1988-01-01 3.5 5.5 -0.8 0.5 4.1 1989-01-01 4.2 5.3 -0.7 0.7 4.8 1990-01-01 3.7 5.6 -0.2 0.6 5.4 1991-01-01 1.9 0.4 6.9 -1.2 4.2 1992-01-01 0. 1 1.2 7.5 1.2 3 1993-01-01 3.5 0.6 6.9 -0.1 3 1994-01-01 2.8 -0.6 6.1 0.4 2.6 1995-01-01 4 5.6 -0.8 0.2 2.8 1996-01-01 2.7 5.4 -0.5 0.1 2.9 1997-01-01 3.8 4.9 -0.2 -0.6 2.3 4.4 -0.51998-01-01 4.5 0.8 1.5 4.5 -0.4 1999-01-01 4.2 0.6 2.2 4.8 -0.3 2000-01-01 4 1.2 3.4 4.1 0.3 2001-01-01 4.7 -0.6 2.8 1 0.8 2002-01-01 5.8 -1.2 1.6 1.7 2003-01-01 0.7 2.3 2.8 0.2 2004-01-01 5.5 0.4 2.7 3.8 2005-01-01 0.5 5.1 0.7 3.4 3.5 2006-01-01 0.5 4.6 -0.1 3.2 2.8 -0.5 2007-01-01 4.6 -0.4 2.9 2 0 2008-01-01 5.8 0.9 3.8 0.1 2009-01-01 1.2 9.3 -4.1 -0.3 -2.6 3.5 2010-01-01 9.6 2 1.6 2.7 0.3 2011-01-01 8.9 1.5 3.1 1.6 -0.7 2012-01-01 8.1 -1.1 2.1 2.3 2013-01-01 -0.9 7.4 -0.6 1.5 2.1 2014-01-01 -0.7 6.2 0. 1 1.6 2.5 1.2 2015-01-01 5.3 -1.5 0.1 2.9 0.9 2016-01-01 4.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 -0.4 2017-01-01 4.4 0.9 2.1 2.5 -0.5 2018-01-01 3.9 0.3 2.4 3 0.5 2019-01-01 3.7 -0.6 1.8 2.5 0.2 2020-01-01 8.1 -0.6 1.2 -2.2 4.4 2021-01-01 5.4 3.4 4.7 5.8 -2.7 2022-01-01 3.6 3.3 8 1.9 2023-01-01 -1.7 3.6 -3.9 4.1 2.5 0