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How reliably does an inverted yield curve anticipate a recession? How far in advance? Plot from 1970, the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED

  1. How reliably does an inverted yield curve anticipate a recession?
  2. How far in advance? Plot from 1970, the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED code: GS10) and the three-month Treasury bill rate (FRED code: TB3MS). Discuss the variability of the time between an inversion of the yield curve and the subsequent recession.

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