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HW_08 Consider the applications for home mortgages data in the file of P12_04.xlsx. Create a time series chart of the data. Use simple exponential smoothing
HW_08
- Consider the applications for home mortgages data in the file of P12_04.xlsx.
- Create a time series chart of the data.
- Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using the default smoothing constant of 0.1
- Calculate the three types of forecast errors, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE
- Use the solver function in excel to optimize the smoothing constant in order to generate a minimum MAPE value.
- Use multiple regression to develop an equation that can be used to predict future applications for home mortgages (hint: use dummy variables for the quarters and create a time variable for the quarter numbers)
Quarter | Year | Applications |
1 | 1 | 96 |
2 | 1 | 114 |
3 | 1 | 112 |
4 | 1 | 81 |
1 | 2 | 97 |
2 | 2 | 103 |
3 | 2 | 120 |
4 | 2 | 99 |
1 | 3 | 105 |
2 | 3 | 110 |
3 | 3 | 117 |
4 | 3 | 96 |
1 | 4 | 74 |
2 | 4 | 94 |
3 | 4 | 100 |
4 | 4 | 96 |
1 | 5 | 95 |
2 | 5 | 122 |
3 | 5 | 113 |
4 | 5 | 100 |
1 | 6 | 102 |
2 | 6 | 96 |
3 | 6 | 116 |
4 | 6 | 98 |
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