I believe the key points on the Excel sheet would be Permutation (order of picks matter)/Combination (order does not matter) combined with TOTAL outcomes and TOTAL number of ways you can win because you need to know all of that in order to have the correct data to find the probability. One situation where probability would not be useful is when you are dealing with unpredictable or random events that have no pattern or underlying probability distribution. For example, trying to predict the outcome of a coin toss with a biased or unfair coin that does not follow the laws of probability would not be useful