Question
I ONLY NEED THE ANSWER TO THE TWO QUESTIONS IN THE WAITING FOR A YEAR SECTION, BUT I THINK YOU MAY NEED THE INFORMATION ABOVE
I ONLY NEED THE ANSWER TO THE TWO QUESTIONS IN THE "WAITING FOR A YEAR" SECTION, BUT I THINK YOU MAY NEED THE INFORMATION ABOVE IT, SO I POSTED IT AS WELL. (Not sure how many parts of a question can be asked at once, so if you aren't able to do everything, please do the last section.)
Financial Options: NPV Exercise
David and Jennifer are looking to buy an existing business thats for sale. They found two stores that intrigue them. Let's call them Store A and Store B. Both stores are for sale at the same price, $1.5 million. The uncertainty David and Jennifer are facing is the health of the economy. They researched the economic forecasts and believe that there is a 65% chance the economy will remain strong and a 35% chance that the economy may slip into a recession. If the economy does go into a recession, their expected sales will decrease. They must pay $1.5 million now (Year 0) to purchase either store. Their cost of capital is 15.0%.
Store A
If the economy remains strong, Store A will generate net cash flows of $250,000 in Years 1 and 2; $350,000 in Years 3 and 4; and $400,000 in Year 5. They then expect to sell the store in Year 6 for $1.55 million. If the economy slips into a recession, then all of the cash flows, including the sale price of the store at the end of Year 6, will only be 75% of what they would have been had the economy remained strong.
- Calculate the net present value (NPV) of their investment if they purchase Store A and the economy remains strong.
- Calculate the NPV of their investment if they purchase Store A and the economy slips into recession.
- As stated, there is a 65% chance the economy remains strong and a 35% chance the economy slides into recession. Calculate the expected NPV of their investment if they purchase Store A.
Store B
If the economy remains strong, Store B will generate net cash flows of $150,000 in Year 1; $250,000 in Year 2; $350,000 in Year 3; $450,000 in Year 4; and $550,000 in Year 5. They can sell the store at the end of Year 6 for $1.8 million. If the economy goes into a recession, the cash flows and the selling price of the store at the end of Year 6 are only 55% of what the cash flows would have been had the economy remained strong.
- Calculate the NPV of their investment if they purchase Store B and the economy remains strong.
- Calculate the NPV of their investment if they purchase Store B and the economy slips into recession.
- As stated, there is a 65% chance the economy remains strong and a 35% chance the economy slides into recession. Calculate the expected NPV of their investment if they purchase Store B.
- Which store should they purchase, based on expected NPV?
- If David and Jennifer are extremely risk-averse, they might decide to purchase the store with the lower NPV. Why?
Waiting for a Year
David and Jennifer have the option to wait a year. They could still buy Store A a year from now. By that time, they will know for sure whether or not the economy remained strong or slid into a recession. However, because they waited a year, a new competitor entered the market, and the cash flows are 25% less, including the sale price at the end of Year 7. Also, because of the new competitor, they can purchase Store A one year from now for only $1.2 million. In this case, the purchase is made at the end of Year 1, and the cash flows occur at the end of Years 2 through 6, and the sale of the store occurs at the end of Year 7. Because they waited a year, do not forget to "discount" the purchase price (i.e., the purchase is not happening in the present, but one year in the future).
- If waiting a year, they know with 100% certainty that the economy will remain strong. Calculate the NPV of their investment.
- If they are only considering whether to buy Store A now (without knowing for sure the health of the economy) or to wait a year and then buy Store A (knowing for sure the economy will remain strong), which should they choose? Why?
AGAIN, I ONLY NEED THE ANSWER TO THE TWO QUESTIONS IN THE "WAITING FOR A YEAR" SECTION, BUT I THINK YOU MAY NEED THE INFORMATION ABOVE IT, SO I POSTED IT AS WELL. (Not sure how many parts of a question can be asked at once, so if you aren't able to do everything, please do the last section.)
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