I wanna buy this vacant lot somewhere.

At t=0, you can buy the vacant lot for $10M.

At the end of the 5^th year, you probably can sell the land:

The probability =.3 that you sell it for $20M, the probability =.7 that you sell it for $12M.

If the opportunity cost of your fund is 10% per annum and if there is no other cost associated with the land, would you purchase the land? Please be sure to show your calculation.