If you wanted to run a simulation for something with a 25% (1 in 4) chance of success, then you could generate random numbers 1 - 4, and arbitrarily choose one of the numbers to represent a "success." You could choose "1" to be a "success," for instance.

Suppose you want to simulate something with 5% (1 in 20) chance of success.

The most efficient way to simulate that with whole numbers would be to generate the numbers from 1 to________, and arbitrarily choose________ number(s) to represent a "success."

Suppose you want to simulate something with a 80% (4 in 5) chance of success.

The most efficient way to simulate that with whole numbers would be to generate the numbers from 1 to ________, and arbitrarily choose_________number(s) to represent a "success."

Suppose you want to simulate something with a 4 in 17 chance of success.

The most efficient way to simulate that with whole numbers would be to generate the numbers from 1 to________, and arbitrarily choose_________number(s) to represent a "success."

Professor Chase from the University of Minnesota has been working on a new cholesterol medication that is being called BlockageStopper. The university is now conducting studies to determine if there is a possible side effect of sore joints.

Placebo (Population Rate)

To help determine the usual rate of sore joints, the research team gave a placebo (sugar pill) to 1651 subjects. Of those 1651 subjects, 4 of them developed sore joints.

BlockageStopper Trial

The BlockageStopper drug was given to 2642 subjects. Of those 2642 subjects, 19 of them developed sore joints.

Preliminary Math

If we consider the general population of people that don't use BlockageStopper, what is the probability that they will develop sore joints?_________(Enter your answer as a fraction.)

If you had a sample size of 2642 that did NOT use BlockageStopper, how many would expect to develop sore joints?_________

When 2642 subjects DID use the drug, there were 19 subjects that developed sore joints. Does it seem as though sore joints may be a side effect on first glance?

• Yes, the number of people effected seems significantly higher when they are using the drug.
• Yes, the number of people effected seems significantly smaller when they are using the drug.
• No, the number of people effect seems significantly higher when using the drug.
• No, the number of people effect seems significantly lower when using the drug.