In most cases, the determination of probabilistic beliefs is not clearly defined, and combines both subjective judgements and objective calculations to determine probabilities.

Consider the fluctuation of a companys share price or a currencys exchange rate. Overall, it is difficult to predict what events may influence this fluctuation, and sometimes major events happen that have drastic effects. Whether they are caused by a scandal involving the companys CEO, or the outcome of an election, fluctuations in share prices and exchange rates are good examples of how probabilistic beliefs can change over time.

Reflecting on these and other probabilistic indicators, consider examples of how your probabilistic beliefs have changed, or are ever-changing, based on new information, whether in a business or personal context.

Discuss your thoughts.