Question
In November 2008, the Belgian InBev S.A. completed the acquisition of US-based AnheuserBusch. The brewer acquired Anheuser-Busch for close to 40 billion, of which it
In November 2008, the Belgian InBev S.A. completed the acquisition of US-based AnheuserBusch. The brewer acquired Anheuser-Busch for close to 40 billion, of which it classified approximately 25 billion as goodwill. At the end of the fiscal year ending on December 31, 2008, Anheuser-Busch InBevs (AB InBev) net assets amounted to 61,357 million, consisting of 64,183 million in non-current assets and 2,826 million in working capital. The companys book value of equity amounted to 16,126 million. Early May, 2009, when AB Inbevs 1,593 million common shares trade at about 24 per share, an analyst produces the following forecasts for the company and issues an overweight (buy) recommendation.
Forecast | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
sale | 28,475 | 26,688 | 27,909 | 29,047 | 30,089 | 31,011 | 31,810 | 32,470 | 32,311 | 32,658 |
NOPAT | 6,169 | 6,294 | 6,729 | 7,003 | 7,254 | 7,476 | 7,669 | 7,828 | 7,790 | 7,874 |
Depreciation & Armotization | 2,297 | 2,158 | 2,228 | 2,318 | 2,402 | 2,475 | 2,539 | 2,592 | 2,579 | 2,607 |
Investment in Non Current Assets | -1,529 | -1,441 | 1,549 | -1,743 | -1,805 | -1,860 | -1,909 | -1,948 | -1,939 | -1,959 |
Investment in Working capital | 485 | 580 | 669 | 435 | 451 | 465 | 477 | 487 | 485 | 490 |
Free Cash flow to debt to equity ratio | 7,425 | 7,590 | 8,077 | 8,014 | 8,301 | 8,556 | 8,777 | 8,958 | 8,915 | 9,011 |
i. The analyst estimates that AB InBevs weighted average cost of capital is 9 percent and assumes that the free cash flow to debt and equity grows indefinitely at a rate of 1 percent after 2018. Show that under these assumptions, the equity value per share estimate exceeds AB InBevs share price
ii. Calculate AB InBevs expected abnormal NOPATs between 2009 and 2018 based on the above information. How does the implied trend in abnormal NOPAT compare with the general trends in the economy?
iii. Estimate AB InBevs equity value using the abnormal NOPAT model (under the assumption that the WACC is 9 percent and the terminal growth rate is 1 percent). Why do the discounted cash flow model and the abnormal NOPAT model yield different outcomes?
iv. What adjustments to the forecasts are needed to make the two valuation models consistent?
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