Issue

Pennsylvania has been one of the battlegrounds states in Presidential elections for decades. However, while the state has remained competitive at the macro level, transformation has occurred at the micro political level. In other words, there has been a major political realignment along geographical lines since the 1988 presidential contest.

Assignment

Examine the changes that have taken place over time, specifically in the southeastern and southwestern parts of Pennsylvania comparing the last election prior to the realignment, the 1988 contest between republican George H.W Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis and the most recent one between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. What do you think accounts for these changes

Southeastern counties and Southwestern counties

Bucks Allegheny

Chester Beaver

Delaware Fayette

Montgomery Greece

Philadelphia Washington

Westmoreland

Data

Below is a link to the county data for each as well as some additional items

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_presidental_election_in_Pennsylvania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidental_election_in_Pennsylvania

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=83&ElectionType=G&IsActive=1

Responsibilities

Step 1: Calculate the data

Step 2: Representation

Convert relevant information into various mathematical forms e.g. (equations, graphs, diagrams, tables, words)

Step 3: Interpretation

Explain the information presented in mathematical forms e.g. (equations, graphs, diagrams, tables, words)

Step 4: Communication

Expressing quantitative evidence in support of the argument or purpose of the work (in terms of what evidence is used and how it is formatted, presented, and contextualized).

Step 5: Analysis

Make judgments and draw appropriate conclusions based on the quantitative analysis of data, while recognizing the limit of this analysis. Also, view it in terms of size of scales by comparing these regional results with overall statewide totals.

Step 6: Assumptions

Make and evaluate important assumptions in estimation, modeling, and data analysis. Answer the big question: What do you believe has caused the shift in political behavior in Southeastern and Southwestern Pennsylvania?