ITIS 1P97 FALL 2016 GROUP ASSIGNMENT #2 Due Date: November 27, 2016 @11:55 PM THROUGH SAKAI INSTRUCTIONS: This is a team assignment. The assignment is due by 11:55 PM on November 27, 2016. There are six problems in this assignment. You need to solve all five of them. You may use any 'Excel' spreadsheet application to solve the problems, unless indicated otherwise. If the answers to the questions need to be supported with written arguments or explanations you must do it in the same file for all questions. The group must have BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MEMBERS within the same section. Ensure that you have included everyone's first and last names, student numbers, the course and section number, and the contribution of each student towards the project on the cover sheet. Individual assignments are not acceptable, nor will late assignments be accepted. Assignments not having a coversheet will be deducted 25% of the assignment grade. NOTES Students who decide to work in a group with more than 6 members or less than four members will be assigned a penalty of 50% of the assignment grade which is 50 Marks. THE TOTAL MARKS FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT ARE 100. PROBLEM 1: Please refer to the \"Forecasting Monthly Sales\" case study in the text book on pages 195 through 196. Read through the case description, however, do not solve the questions that are asked at the end of the case. Answer the following questions: 20 MARKS a)Forecast the revenue for January 2014 using the moving averages method. Consider three different numbers of periods for the moving average calculation (3, 6, and 9 months). 1. Do the forecasts for January 2014 change if you change the number of periods to be used for calculating the moving average? Enumerate the three different forecasts for January 2014. (1 mark) 2. Plot both the actual revenue and the predicted revenue for all the three moving average calculations (You will have four plots in total). (1 mark) 3. Visually inspect the plots for all three of the moving average predictions (i.e. moving averages based on 3, 6, and 9 months). (i) What are the advantages of using a small number of periods in the moving average calculations? What are the disadvantages? (1 marks) (ii) What are the advantages of using a large number of periods in the moving average calculations? What are the disadvantages? (1 marks) b) Forecast the revenue for January 2014 using the exponential smoothing method. Consider three different smoothing constants for the calculations: 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8. 1. Do forecasts for January 2014 change if you change the smoothing constant values in your calculations? Enumerate the three different forecasts for January 2014. (1 mark) 2. Plot both the actual revenue and the predicted revenues for all the three calculations (You will have four plots in total). (1 mark) 3. Visually inspect the plots for all three predictions (i.e. predictions based on smoothing constant values of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8). (i) What are the advantages of using a small value for the smoothing constant? What are the disadvantages? (1 mark) (ii) What are the advantages of using a large value for the smoothing constant? What are the disadvantages? (1 marks) c) Using the decomposition method, forecast revenues for each month of the next year (year 2014). (12 marks) ITIS 1P97 FALL 2016 PROBLEM 2: Please refer to simulation problem 30 on page 351 through 352, and answer the following questions. 20 MARKS A. Simulate a 1-hour time period, from 1 PM to 2 PM, for a single-teller drive through. (8 marks) B. Simulate a 1-hour time period, from 1 PM to 2 PM, for a single line of people waiting for next available teller in a two-teller system. (8 marks) C. Conduct a cost analysis of the two options. Assume that the bank is open 7 hours per day and 200 days per year. (4 marks) PROBLEM 3: A large company may satisfy its fuel-oil requirements either by one annual contract or a series of monthly contracts throughout the winter. The cost for the annual contract is $1.25 per gallon. If the year is \"normal\