Itmdanaaamm The time management knowledge area is one of the most important chapters in the PMBOK Guide from a PMP exam point of view. You are going to see a lot of questions from this chapter in the exam; therefore study this chapter thoroughly and make sure you are able to solve all practice questions given in this chapter. In the exam you can see questions from following given topics: - Triangular Distribution - Beta Distribution (PERT) - Standard Deviation, Variance - Critical Path Method - Type of Dependency - Total Float and Free Float - Schedule Compressions Technique - Crashing Now let's discuss each ofthem in detail. Triangular and beta distribution are used to calculate the activity duration. To calculate triangular or beta estimate you use three estimates for each activity: 1) Optimistic Estimate 2) Pessimistic Estimate 3) Most Likely Estimate The optimistic estimate is the least possible time in which the activity can be finished. It is denoted by to. The pessimistic estimate is the worst case scenario. Here you assume the worst case for the activity to complete. Simply put, this is the maximum time required to complete an activity. It is denoted by tp. The most likely estimate is the most probable time the activity will take to be completed. It is denoted by tm. Once you get these three estimate, you can calculate the triangular or beta estimate very easily. Triangular Distribution In triangular distribution, the mean is equal to the sum of these three, and divided by three. Mean = (Optimistic + Most-likely + Pessimist)/3 Or, Expected Duration (Triangular Distribution) te= (to + tm + tp)/3 Example Your team member told you that in your project, painting work may take 20 days to complete. However, if the weather is not favorable it will take 26 days. He also told you that if all conditions are good, painting can be completed in 18 days. Using triangular distribution, calculate the expected duration for this activity. Solution: According to triangular estimate, Expected Duration te= (to + tm + tp)/3 Given Data: tm = 20 days tp = 26 days to = 18 days Therefore, expected duration = (20 + 26 +18)/3 = 21.33 days E'E"1 You have been given a task which might take 60 days to complete; however if the conditions are favorable it might be completed in 55 days. In the worst case scenario, it may take 70 days. Find the average estimate for this task using triangular estimate