Month	New constructions (thousands)
Jan-2015	29
Feb-2015	32
Mar-2015	41
Apr-2015	44
May-2015	49
Jun-2015	47
Jul-2015	46
Aug-2015	47
Sep-2015	43
Oct-2015	45
Nov-2015	34
Dec-2015	31
Jan-2016	35
Feb-2016	43
Mar-2016	46
Apr-2016	46
May-2016	43
Jun-2016	41
Jul-2016	44
Aug-2016	47
Sep-2016	41
Oct-2016	40
Nov-2016	32
Dec-2016	32
Jan-2017	34
Feb-2017	40
Mar-2017	43
Apr-2017	42
May-2017	43
Jun-2017	44
Jul-2017	39
Aug-2017	40
Sep-2017	33
Oct-2017	32
Nov-2017	31
Dec-2017	28
Jan-2018	34
Feb-2018	29
Mar-2018	36
Apr-2018	42
May-2018	43
Jun-2018	44
Jul-2018	44
Aug-2018	48
Sep-2018	45
Oct-2018	44
Nov-2018	40
Dec-2018	37
Jan-2019	45
Feb-2019	49
Mar-2019	62
Apr-2019	62
May-2019	58
Jun-2019	59
Jul-2019	64
Aug-2019	62
Sep-2019	50
Oct-2019	52
Nov-2019	50
Dec-2019	44
Jan-2020	51
Feb-2020	56
Mar-2020	60
Apr-2020	65
May-2020	64
Jun-2020	63
Jul-2020	63
Aug-2020	72
Sep-2020	61
Oct-2020	65
Nov-2020	51
Dec-2020	47

Assume that the data in columns A and B report the new constructions of residential homes, per month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon.

1 point per correct answer

a) Chart the data. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.

b) Use the "TahoeSalt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12months of 2021.

c) Addyour model values and forecast to the data chart.

d) Compute the MAD of your model.

e) Compute andplotthe tracking signal in a new chart.

f)Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw?

g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part.