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Month Sales1 Sales2 Jan-18 1368 1024 Feb-18 1380 928 Mar-18 1406 1442 Apr-18 1439 1371 May-18 1474 1536 Jun-18 1499 2004 Jul-18 1528 1854 Aug-18

Month Sales1 Sales2
Jan-18 1368 1024
Feb-18 1380 928
Mar-18 1406 1442
Apr-18 1439 1371
May-18 1474 1536
Jun-18 1499 2004
Jul-18 1528 1854
Aug-18 1541 1951
Sep-18 1570 1516
Oct-18 1608 1642
Nov-18 1632 1166
Dec-18 1661 1106
Jan-19 1701 1189
Feb-19 1732 1209
Mar-19 1758 1754
Apr-19 1774 1843
May-19 1808 1769
Jun-19 1827 2207
Jul-19 1844 2471
Aug-19 1871 2288
Sep-19 1898 1867
Oct-19 1908 1980
Nov-19 1934 1418
Dec-19 1968 1333
Jan-20 1986 1333
Feb-20 2021 1370
Mar-20 2056 2142
Apr-20 2095 2138
May-20 2122 2078
Jun-20 2143 2960
Jul-20 2168 2616
Aug-20 2207 2861
Sep-20 2226 2237
Oct-20 2255 2225
Nov-20 2283 1590
Dec-20 2309 1659
Jan-21 2338 1613
Feb-21 2382 1605
Mar-21 2400 2349
Apr-21 2452 2468
May-21 2486 2532
Jun-21 2522 3127
Jul-21 2547 3288
Aug-21 2570 3285
Sep-21 2611 2485
Oct-21 2628 2723
Nov-21 2662 1835
Dec-21 2696 1894

The file Case-1-Forecast.Xlsx contains monthly data from January 2018 to December 2021 for a ABC company. The first variable is Time. The second variable, Sales 1, has data on sales of a product 1. The third variable, Sales 2, has data on sales of a product 2.

Question 1: Use the Sales 1 data to answer following questions

  1. What is the forecast for January of the year 2018 using Holts method with alpha= 0.1, beta= 0.5 ?
  2. Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of smoothing constants (alpha and beta) that minimize MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value of alpha and beta .

MSE =

  1. What is the forecast for June of the year 2022 using Holts method based on the optimal value of alpha and beta?
  2. Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
  3. Can you apply this forecasting method to the sales 2 data (explain)?

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