Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 SPARC M7 GC2 IPU 32-core AMD Epyc IBM z13 Storage Controller. Apple A12X Bionic 10,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5. Hegra Xavier Soc Xbox One main SoC ualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 5,000,000,000 61-core Xeon Phi Q & iSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-core POWERS `HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 8 10-core Core 17 Broadwell- Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core itanium 20 + GPU Ins Core 17 Broadwell-U o Quad-core + GPU e 17 Skylake K 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWER6 Quad-core + GPU Core 17 Haswell 8MB cached Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC" 500,000,000 Core 17 (Quad) Itanium 2 Madison 6MQ AMD K1 Core 2 DUG Warfare 2M L3 Pentium D Smithf Itanium 2 Mckinley Duo Conroe Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale 100,000,000 AMD KB `Pentium 4 Cedar Mill Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium II Mobile Dixon Pentium III Tualatin AMD K7 . Pentium III Coppermine .ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-lil Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD Nog Pentium II Deschutes 5,000,000 Pentium Prog Amath Pentium AMD K5 Intel 80486 1,000,000 24000 500,000 Ti Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 803860 1960 0 9 ARM 3 Motorola 68020 0 100,000 Motorola Intel 80286 ATDMI 50,000 Intel 80186 Intel 80869 @ Intel 8088 PARM 2 CARM 1 ARM 6 Motorola 650816 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog 280 NC 4016 RCA 1802 int 5,000 wintel 8085 Intel 8008 intel 8080 680la S Technology Intel 4 1,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1986 1988 1990 992 1994 1996 998 2000 2002 2004 16 2006 2008 2010 2012 20 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Rose The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are 11 linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 SPARC M7 GC2 IPU IBM z13 Storage Controller 32-core AMD Epyc Apple A12X Bionic 10 10,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Tegra Xavier SoC Xbox One main SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 5,000,000,000 61-core Xeon Phi `HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-core POWERS HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX -core Core 17 Broadwell-E Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 29 al-core + GPU Iris Core 17 Broa Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K 9 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWER6 Quad-core + GPU Core 17 Haswell Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") 500,000,000 "g'MB cache Core 17 (Quad) Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Gore 2 Duo Wolfdale Pentium D Smithfield 2 Duo Conroe Itanium 2 Mckinley Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale `Pentium 4 Cedar Mill 8 100,000,000 AMD K8 Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium II Mobile Dixon "Pentium III Tualatin AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine PARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-III 7 Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD K6Q OPentium III Katmai Pentium II Deschutes 5,000,000 Pentium Prog Penit Klamath Pentium AMD KS CA-110 Intel 80486 6 1,000,000 14000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386 18509ARM 3 Motorola 68020 DEC WRL 5 100,000 Intel 80286 Multifitan 50,000 Intel 80186 Intel 80869 . Intel 8088 PARM 2 ARM 6 ARM 1 Motorola 650816 4 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 NC4016 RCA 1802 5,000 Intel 8085 Intel 8008 Intel 8080 28 Technology Intel 4004 3 1,000 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per 1C in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction = Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? Part c: Do you think that your 2040 prediction in Part b is technologically achievable? Why or why not? Module Three Discussion Question: Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work. Hint: The chart is taken from https:.-".-"'ourworldindata.org-"teclmologicalprogress. From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per TC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040'? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the yaxis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with yaxis tick marks of 101 = 10, it)2 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular yaxis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.l,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 2008 taken from littps:.-"'..-"ourworldindata.org..-'tecllnological progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology}. At rst, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look careilly at the yaxis it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 19?] to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this