Mr Goodyear, a pistachio producer, wants to explore his opportunities to trade with France, Canada and the world. These 3 markets vary considerably with respect to the allowed maximum levels of aflatoxins per kg of product. France, for instance, has a maximum tolerable level of 1 g/kg. For Canada this maximum tolerable level is 15 g/kg; for the World market is 20 g/kg. Due to these differences, production costs for these 3 markets vary, along with the risk of the final product not complying with the country specific standards (it is assumed that the product is always compliant with the world market standards). Goodyear uses a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the three trade options, accounting for the uncertainty in pistachio production, production costs and product prices for the three alternatives, as well as the risk of not complying with the the standards of France and Canada. The Table below shows the results of this simulation. Revenues are expressed in $ thousands.

Market	France	Canada	World
Minimum	1587	1954	2107
Maximum	2976	2837	2621
Mean	2471	2420	2390
Std Deviation	212	193	160
10%	1690	1983	2139
20%	1875	2052	2173
30%	2079	2158	2224
40%	2202	2259	2273
50%	2419	2380	2347
60%	2553	2452	2382
70%	2653	2569	2407
80%	2788	2668	2449
90%	2891	2773	2509
95%	2926	2812	2517

1. If you knew nothing of Mr Goodyear risk propensity, what trade option would you expect him to undertake? Why? (1 point)

2. Assume that Mr Goodyear needs to make at least $2,200,000 sales to break even. What options should he choose? What if instead his breakeven sales were $2,550,000? Explain (2 points - one point for each breakeven)