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Mr. Hemsworth is the CFO of Thunder Inc. and he is responsible for managing transaction exposure. The company will need to pay 335,000 Australian dollars

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Mr. Hemsworth is the CFO of Thunder Inc. and he is responsible for managing transaction exposure. The company will need to pay 335,000 Australian dollars to a partner for licensing fees in 30 days. He came up with the probability of the exchange rates of the US dollar per Australian dollar (see the table below). If an Australian dollar sells for 1.9275 U.S. dollars and the 30 days forward rate is USD 2.1231 per AUD, what is the probability of the forward hedging to underperform the unhedged positions? Possible Spot Rate in 30 Days Probability 1.8284 24% 2.0558 16% 2.2904 24% 2.3913 36% a. 40% b. 60% Ec64% d. 36%

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