MSFT shares are currently trading at a price of $24, while AMZN shares are trading at a price of $48.84. The risk-free rate is 1.29% per year.

If AMZN shares have a 77% chance of increasing by 10% and a 23% chance of decreasing by 15% by the date of the option expiration, what will be the expected return on AMZN shares and the expected return on a protective put position? For simplicity you may assume the put has a price of $1 and has the same strike-price as listed above.