New Energy is evaluating a new biofuel facility. The plant would cost $4,000 million to build and has the potential to produce up to 40 million barrels of synthetic oil a year. The product is a close substitute for conventional oil and would sell for the same price. The market price of oil currently is fluctuating around $100 per barrel, but there is considerable uncertainty about future prices. Variable costs for the organic inputs to the production process are estimated at $82 per barrel and are expected to be stable. In addition, annual upkeep and maintenance expenses on the facility will be $100 million regardless of the production level. The plant has an expected life of 15 years, and it will be depreciated using MACRS and a 10-year recovery period. Salvage value net of cleanup costs is expected to be negligible.

Demand for the product is difficult to forecast. Depending on consumer acceptance, sales might range from 25 million to 35 million barrels annually. The discount rate is 12%, and New Energy's tax bracket is 35%.

• a. Find the project NPV for the following combinations of oil price and sales volume. Which source of uncertainty seems most important to the success of the project?

Oil Price
Annual sales	$80/barrel	$100/barrel	$120/barrel
25 million barrels
30 million barrels
35 million barrels

• b.Atanoilpriceof$100,whatlevelofannualsales,maintainedoverthelifeoftheplant,isnecessaryforNPVbreak-even?(ThiswillrequiretrialanderrorunlessyouarefamiliarwithmoreadvancedfeaturesofExcelsuchastheGoalSeekcommand.)
• c.Atanoilpriceof$100,whatistheaccountingbreak-evenlevelofsalesineachyear?Whydoesitchangeeachyear?Doesthisnotionofbreak-evenseemreasonabletoyou?
• d. If each of the scenarios in the grid in part (a) is equally likely, what is the expected NPV of the facility?
• e. Why might the facility be worth building despite your answer to part (d)?