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STANDARD VIEW PRINTER VERSION Problem 2. True Beauty is a cosmetics company that uses exponential smoothing with treed to forecast monthly sales of its special face cream. At the end of November, the company wants to forecast December. The trend through October has been 10 additional boxes sold per month. Average sales have been 60 boxes per month. The demand for November and 3=0.10. Make a forecast including trend for the month of December 68 box. The company Before You Begin: Before you begin solving this type of problem, first identify the information plen in the problem. The information we have is: SOct = 60 boxes/month Toet - 10 boxes/month ANY = 68 boxes 0 0 .20 30.10 Now we can follow the three steps in the chapter for trend-adjusted exponential smoothing. Solution: We need to use three equations to generate a forecast including trend. For each equation we substitute the appropriate values Step 1 Smoothing the level of the series: S = + (1 -)(-1+1-1) Stor = ador+ (1 -a)(Soc+Tot) = (0,20)(68) + (0 80) (60 +10) 696 Step 2 Smoothing the trend: T, = 35,-S-1) + (1 - T-1 Nov - 3(xor + Sout) + (1 - Oct = (0.1)(68) + (69-60) + (90)10 9.9 Step 3 Forecast including trend: - FIT FIT DR S,+T: S Nov + Trov 6999 MacBook Air