Question
On a game show, a contestant is told the rules as follows: There are three doors, labelled 1, 2, 3. A single prize has been
On a game show, a contestant is told the rules as follows:
There are three doors, labelled 1, 2, 3. A single prize has been hidden behind one of them. You get to select one door. Initially your chosen door will not be opened. Instead, the gameshow host will open one of the other two doors, and he will do so in such a way as not to reveal the prize. For example, if you first choose door 1, he will then open one of doors 2 and 3, and it is guaranteed that he will choose which one to open so that the prize will not be revealed. At this point, you will be given a fresh choice of door: you can either stick with your first choice, or you can switch to the other closed door. All the doors will then be opened and you will receive whatever is behind your final choice of door. Imagine that the contestant chooses door 1 first; then the gameshow host opens door 3, revealing nothing behind the door, as promised.
Should the contestant (a) stick with door 1, or (b) switch to door 2, or (c) does it make no difference? You may assume that initially, the prize is equally likely to be behind any of the 3 doors. Hint: use Bayes rule.
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