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Pharmaceutical products go through three stages of clinical trials and two stages prior to clinical trials. The outcome for each stage may be favourable, or
Pharmaceutical products go through three stages of clinical trials and two stages prior to clinical trials. The outcome for each stage may be favourable, or unfavourable. If it is favour, the pharmaceutical company has the choice of entering the next stage of trials. The success rate for moving through the stages is given in the table below: Stage Number of trials per successful drug launch Estimated cost per stage Screening Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Product launch 5000.0 1019.3 3.7 2.6 1.2 1.0 150 4,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 (i) Given success in a stage, determine the probability of success in the next stage. (ii) Determine the expected cost of developing a successful drug
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