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Question 3 (14 marks) Assume that the following regression model was applied to historical data ER, = do + a,INT, + a INF1 + where, ER, - % change in the SGD1 (Singapore dollar) over period t INT, = average interest rate difference (Philippine interest rate minus Singapore interest rate) over period t = inflation difference (Philippine inflation rate minus Singapore inflation INF-1 rate) over period t ao dj, az = regression coefficients 4 = error term The regression coefficients were estimated as: 29 = 0.a, = 075, 22=0.55 Assume last year's annual inflation rates 5% in the Philippines and 1% in Singapore The annual interest rate difference in period t is thought to be Probability interest rate difference 22% 22% The annual interest rate difference in period t is thought to be interest rate difference Probability 2.2% 22% 3.9% 4936 5.9% 29% Required (a) Use the above information to forecast the percentage (%) change of the SGD1 exchange rate in each of the three (3) probability scenarios. Show all working (5 marks) (b) If the spot rate is PHP33.4050 = SGD1 and the one (1) year forward rate is PHP33.9975 = SGD1, what is the forecasted spot rate of the SGDI in one (1) year for each probability scenario. Show all working (5 marks) If you believed this model to be an accurate forecaster or predictor, state what strategy The annual interest rate difference in period t is thought to be Probability interest rate difference 22% 22% 3.9% 49% 5.9% 29% Required (a) Use the above information to forecast the percentage (%) change of the SGD1 exchange rate in each of the three (3) probability scenarios. Show all working (5 marks) (b) If the spot rate is PHP33.4050 - SGD1 and the one (1) year forward rate is PHP33.9975 = SGD1, what is the forecasted spot rate of the SGDI in one (1) year for each probability scenario. Show all working (5 marks) (C) If you believed this model to be an accurate forecaster or predictor, state what strategy you should adopt given that you expect to make a payable in SGD in one (1) year? Briefly, but very clearly and explicitly explain why you would choose this strategy? Would this strategy change if you expect a receivable in one (1) year in SGD? Briefly, but very clearly and explicitly explain why or why not? (4 marks)