Please read the following report, and answer one question below

NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND A CHANGING CLIMATE This report responds to the Congressional request to the Department of Defense to identify the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each Combatant Command, the ways in which the Combatant Commands are integrating mitigation of these risks into their planning processes, and a description of the resources required for an effective response. Submitted in response to a request contained in Senate Report 113-211, accompanying H.R. 4870, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2015. The estimated cost of this report or study for the Department of Defense is approximately $22,000 for the 2015 Fiscal Year. This includes $0 in expenses and $22,000 in DoD labor. Generated on 2015May27 RefID: 8-6475571

Response to Congressional Inquiry on National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate July 2015 Elements of Request for Report This report responds to the request by the Senate Committee on Appropriations for information on the National Security Implications of Climate Change made in the report to accompany H.R. 4870, the Department of Defense (DoD) Appropriations Act for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2015. Specifically, the Committee requested that the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy provide a report to: Identify the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each Combatant Command. Identify ways Combatant Commands integrate risk mitigation in their planning processes, including in the areas of: o Humanitarian disaster relief; o Security cooperation; o Building partner capacity; and o Sharing best practices for mitigation of installation vulnerabilities. Describe resources required for an effective response and the timeline of resources needs. This report is organized into three primary sections: I. Common Conceptions of Risk and Response II. Geographic Combatant Commands (GCCs) - Specific Aspects III. Conclusion

I. Common Conceptions of Risk and Response DoD recognizes the reality of climate change and the significant risk it poses to U.S. interests globally. The National Security Strategy, issued in February 2015, is clear that climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources such as food and water.1 These impacts are already occurring, and the scope, scale, and intensity of these impacts are projected to increase over time. The Departments defense strategy, as reflected in the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), emphasizes three pillars: protect the homeland, build security globally, and project power and win decisively. A changing climate increases the risk of instability and conflict overseas, and has implications for DoD on operations, personnel, installations, and the stability, development, and human security of other nations. This is why DoD released the Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap (CCAR) in October 2014. The CCAR identifies three overarching goals: to identify and assess the effects of a changing climate on the Departments infrastructure, mission, and activities; to identify, manage, and integrate climate change considerations across the full range of Department missions and activities; and to collaborate with internal and external entities on understanding and assessing the challenges of a changing climate and developing appropriate responses to those challenges. Geographic Combatant Commands (GCCs) incorporate the risks posed by current and projected climate variations into their planning, resource requirements, and operational considerations. GCCs, often at the request of partner nations, cooperate with other nations on adaptation practices, resilience, environmental considerations, and risk reduction. Climate-Related Security Risks Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problemssuch as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutionsthat threaten domestic stability in a number of countries. Each GCCs assessment of risk reflects how this range of factors will affect security in its Area of Responsibility (AOR). GCCs generally view climate change as a security risk because it impacts human security and, more indirectly, the ability of governments to meet the basic needs of their populations. Communities and states that are already fragile and have limited resources are significantly more

vulnerable to disruption and far less likely to respond effectively and be resilient to new challenges. Case studies indicate that in addition to exacerbating existing risks from other factors (e.g., social, economic, and political fault lines), climate-induced stress can generate new vulnerabilities (e.g., water scarcity) and thus contribute to instability and conflict even in situations not previously considered at risk. GCCs have identified four general areas of climate-related security risks: Persistently recurring conditions such as flooding, drought, and higher temperatures increase the strain on fragile states and vulnerable populations by dampening economic activity and burdening public health through loss of agriculture and electricity production, the change in known infectious disease patterns and the rise of new ones, and increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. This could result in increased intra- and inter-state migration, and generate other negative effects on human security. For example, from 2006-2011, a severe multi-year drought affected Syria2 and contributed to massive agriculture failures and population displacements. Large movements of rural dwellers to city centers coincided with the presence of large numbers of Iraqi refugees in Syrian cities, effectively overwhelming institutional capacity to respond constructively to the changing service demands. These kinds of impacts in regions around the world could necessitate greater DoD involvement in the provision of humanitarian assistance and other aid. More frequent and/or more severe extreme weather events that may require substantial involvement of DoD units, personnel, and assets in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) abroad and in Defense Support of Civil Authorities (DSCA) at home. Massive flooding in Pakistan in 2010 was the countrys worst in recorded history, killing more than 2,000 people and affecting 18 million; DoD delivered humanitarian relief to otherwise inaccessible areas. Super Storm Sandy in New York and New Jersey in 2012 resulted in over 14,000 DoD personnel mobilized to provide direct support, and at least an additional 10,000 who supported the operation in various capacities in the areas of power restoration, fuel resupply, transportation infrastructure repair, water and meal distribution, temporary housing and sheltering, and debris removal. The need for HADR and DSCA will likely rise as cities expand to encompass the majority of the global population and because flood risk threatens more people than

any other natural hazard, especially in urban areas. 3 Many growing cities are located in low- and middle-income countries with limited resources. Building partner nation capacity for HA/DR capabilities and civilian-military partnerships for DSCA are important parts of GCC security cooperation efforts. The Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) is responsible for leading and coordinating the U.S. Governments response to disasters overseas. Sea level rise and temperature changes lead to greater chance of flooding in coastal communities and increase adverse impacts to navigation safety, damages to port facilities and cooperative security locations, and displaced populations. Sea level rise may require more frequent or larger-scale DoD involvement in HADR and DSCA. Measures will also likely be required to protect military installations, both in the United States and abroad, and to work with partner nations that support DoD operations and activities. Sea level rise, increased ocean acidification, and increased ocean warming pose threats to fish stocks, coral, mangroves, recreation and tourism, and the control of disease affecting the economies, and ultimately stability, of DoDs partner nations. Some Pacific island nations face the risk of being entirely submerged by rising seas, and most island nations freshwater supplies will be threatened by saltwater intrusion well before then. Loss of land, especially highly populated and agriculturally rich coastal land, also poses secondorder effects on human displacement and economic and food stability, and may further exacerbate challenges associated with disease vectors.4 Decreases in Arctic ice cover, type, and thickness will lead to greater access for tourism, shipping, resource exploration and extraction, and military activities. Land accesswhich depends on frozen ground in the Arcticwill diminish as permafrost thaws. These factors may increase the need for search and rescue (SAR) capabilities, monitoring of increased shipping and other human activity, and the capability to respond to crises or contingencies in the region. Difficult and unpredictable weather conditions, large distances, and scarce resources make emergency response in the Arctic difficult. Arctic operations are expensive and dangerous for military forces that are unprepared for the austere operating environment. DoD continues to evaluate the need for specific Arctic capabilities.

According to this report by the US Department of Defense, a changing climate increases the risk of which of the following? (select all that apply)

weapons becoming less useful

instability

enemies growing stronger

conflict

US citizens wanting to move to other countries