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Exercise 1 Common midwife toad (Alytes obstetricans) lives in half of the ponds in some area, P(toad) = 1/2. If it is a sunny spring day (soil temperature is 14C) then an observer can spot the toad with probability 0.6 - if the toad actually lives in a given pond. Look at the graphs below (Tanadini & Schmidt, 2011): Alytes obstetricans Bombina variegata 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 .0.0. 0.0.0 0 0 0 0.6 0.6 Detection Probability Detection Probability 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 10 12 14 16 18 20 5 10 15 20 Soil Temperature [*C] Wind speed [Km/h] Figure 1. The relationship between meteorological variables and detection probabilities in two anurans. Thin gray lines are 95% confidence intervals. Small ticks inside the box indicate observed soil temperatures and wind speeds, respectively. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028244.g001 If an observer visits a randomly selected pond in this area, what is the probability to observe a toad there