Present Present Net

Environmental Value of Value of Present Expected

Regulation Probability Using Timber Timber Cost Value Value

Increased Regulation $30\%$ $$6\mathrm{.}5$ M $$5\mathrm{.}0$ M $$1\mathrm{.}5$ M $$0\mathrm{.}45$ M

Current Regulation $60\%$ $$6\mathrm{.}0$ M $$5\mathrm{.}0$ M $$1\mathrm{.}0$ M $$0\mathrm{.}60$ M

Decreased Regulation $10\%$ $$4\mathrm{.}5$ M $$5\mathrm{.}0$ M $$(0\mathrm{.}5$ M$)$ $$(0\mathrm{.}05$ M$)$

$$1\mathrm{.}00$ M

Increased Regulation $30\%$ $$6\mathrm{.}5$ M $$7\mathrm{.}0$ M $$(0\mathrm{.}5$ M$)$ $$(0\mathrm{.}15$ M$)$

Current Regulation $60\%$ $$6\mathrm{.}0$ M $$5\mathrm{.}0$ M $$1\mathrm{.}0$ M $$0\mathrm{.}60$ M

Decreased Regulation $10\%$ $$4\mathrm{.}5$ M $$3\mathrm{.}0$ M $$1\mathrm{.}5$M $$0\mathrm{.}15$ M

$$0\mathrm{.}60$M

if an upcoming election a change in the administration in government was a probable $($New Administration $45\%$; Current Administration $55\%)$

and, accordingly, with a change in administration the probability of regulations changing would be$...$

$50\%$ increased regulation$/$

$50\%$ regulations unchanged$/$

$0\%$ decreased regulation$).$

How would these affect the decision tree and the resultant decision? What is the tipping point relative to the probability of a change in administration that would fundamentally change the decision of investing now or over the next $10$ years?