Problem 1

The following equation summarizes the trend portion of quarterly sales of automatic dishwashers over a long cycle.

Sales also exhibit seasonal variations.

Ft = 40 - 6.5t + 2t^2

where

Ft = Unit sales (in 000 units)

t = 1 at the first quarter of 2015

Quarter - Relative

1 - 110

2 - 100

3 - 60

4 - 130

Please answer all questions and make it visible like: 1) a; 2)b; etc, THANK YOU!

The time series plot of the sales of the dishwasher shows an increasing and non-linear trend over the 7-year period. A) True B)False

2. Based on the time series plot above, in which quarter is the sales of automatic dishwashers typically the best or highest in terms of expected number of units to be sold?

a. Q1 b. Q2 c. Q3 d. Q4

3. Based on the time series plot above, in which quarter is the sales of automatic dishwashers typically the worst or lowest in terms of the expected number of units to be sold?

a. Q1 b. Q2 c. Q3 d. Q4

4. Referring to the time series graph above, which of the following is represented by the smoothed curve (in blue)?

a. Seasonally adjusted forecast of sales of dishwashers

b. Actual sales of dishwashers

c. Seasonally unadjusted forecast of dishwasher sales

d. Deseasonalized actual sales of dishwashers

e. None of the above

5. Referring to the time series graph above, which of the following is represented by the jagged plot (in green)?

a. Seasonally adjusted forecast of sales of dishwashers

b. Actual sales of dishwashers

c. Seasonally unadjusted forecast of dishwasher sales

d. Deseasonalized actual sales of dishwashers

e. None of the above

6. If you were going to develop a forecast for the third quarter of 2021 using the trend equation given above, what will be the time code (i.e. value of t) for this period?________

7. Using the given trend equation, give your seasonally unadjusted forecast for the third quarter of 2021. ________

8. Using the given trend equation, give your seasonally adjusted forecast for the third quarter of 2021 ________

9. During the second quarter of 2017, the actual number of dishwashers sold was 170 (000 units). The seasonally adjusted forecast for the second quarter of 2017 was 175(000) units. What is (how much) is the forecast error for this quarter? ______

10. Assume you were the marketing manager of this outfit that is selling the dishwashers. What is the likely consequence if for the third quarter of 2017 you fail to consider the seasonal differences (i.e. you think that the sales of the product do not differ from quarter to quarter) in generating the forecast for the quarter?

a. Nothing

b. You will have excess inventory (higher inventory costs)

c. You will have shortages (lost sales or profits)

d. None of the above - all quarters are similar

11. Assume you were the marketing manager of this outfit that is selling the dishwashers. What is the likely consequence if for the first quarter of 2017 you fail to consider the seasonal differences (i.e. you think that the sales of the product do not differ from quarter to quarter) in generating the forecast for the quarter?

a. Nothing

b. You will have excess inventory (higher inventory costs)

c. You will have shortages (lost sales or profits)

d. None of the above - all quarters are similar

Number of Dishwashers Sold 2015-2021