PROBLEM 1: To forecast the quarterly sales (number of units) of an automobile part supplier, an analyst decided to use Exponential Smoothing model with trend and quarterly multiplicative seasonality. Using a = 0.20, y = 0.10, and 8-0.2, the historical data (Last 40 quarters ending December 31st, 2021), gave following estimates of the relevant parameters: Lo (Level at end of Quarter 4, 2021) = 22000 T = (Trend at end of Quarter 4, 2021) = 120 S=(Seasonal Factor for Quarter 4) = 1.2 S=(Seasonal Factor for Quarter 3) = 0.9 S., (Seasonal Factor for Quarter 2) = 0.8 S=(Seasonal Factor for Quarter 1) = 1.1 (a) Interpret the meaning of all the parameters given above. (b) At the end of Quarter 4, 2021, what would be your forecast for Quarter 1 of 2021?