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Problem 5. (11 marks in total) The manager of a company wants to determine whether to extend a $100,000 credit to a potential new customer.

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Problem 5. (11 marks in total) The manager of a company wants to determine whether to extend a $100,000 credit to a potential new customer. The manager uses three categories for the credit-worthiness of a credit seeker: poor risk, average risk, and good risk. Experience indicates that 20 percent of credit seekers similar to the new potential customer are poor risks, 50 percent are average risks, and 30 percent are good risks. If credit is provided, the expected profit for poor risks is -$15,000, for average risks $10,000, and good risks $20,000. The manager has the option of consulting a credit-rating organization for a fee of $5,000 per case evaluated. Clearly, if credit is not granted, the expected profit is zero. (a) (4 marks) Develop a decision analysis formulation of this problem by identifying the decision alternatives, the states of nature, and the pay-off table when the credit-rating organization is not used. (b) (5 marks) Find the EVPI. (c) (2 marks) Does your answer in (b) indicate that consideration should be given to using the credit-rating organization? Justify

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