Question
Question 1 Consider the following time series data: Month Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 a) Develop a three-week moving average for this
Question 1
Consider the following time series data:
Month Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
a) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
b) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
c) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
d) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.
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