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C&F Apparel, Inc. Bill Smith, director of business planning for C&F Apparel, chewed on a pencil as he looked out the window of his fourth- story office. These bad forecasts are killing us, he thought. Forecast errors for the fall season's sales had ranged from 50 to 200 percent of demand. As a consequence, C&F had discounted its apparel heavily, with average markdowns of 30 percent. In addition, it had written off some 15 percent of inventory as obsolete. C&F Apparel was a medium-sized designer and producer of sports apparel and active wear, including pants, shirts, sweaters, and some accessories. Though it did not own any retail stores, it sold through most of the larger retail outlets throughout North America. The clothes sold by C&F were considered by most consumers to be durable and reasonably priced. While its fashions were not cutting edge, C&F managed to keep up with trends and changing designs from season to season. Each selling season lasted about 15 weeks. Developing good forecasts and maintaining product availability were constant challenges for C&F. To keep costs low, the company sourced most of its products from material and assembly plants located in the Pacific Rim countries, including China, Vietnam, and Thailand. The lead time to have new designs made and shipped from these countries was typically two to three months, so it was important for initial sales estimates to be as accurate as possible. Bill Smith and his marketing team took it upon themselves to develop forecasts each season. They used sales from the previous year's season, along with their judgments regarding upcoming changes in economic conditions and consumer tastes. While the aggregate sales forecasts developed by Bill and his team were sometimes fairly accurate, forecasts for specific items were all over the map. Bill knew that their forecasting process was not as consistent from season to season as it could be, but he felt that flexibility was needed to cope with changing conditions.