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Results: - For A: A = -5 - 10q if Soviets Defy, A = 5 - 2q if Soviets Withdraw. - For B: B =
Results: - For A: A = -5 - 10q if Soviets Defy, A = 5 - 2q if Soviets Withdraw. - For B: B = -5 - 10q if US Defies, B = 4 - 8q if US Withdraws. Interpretation: - The functions A and B capture the strategic interactions between the US and the USSR. A reflects how the US payoff changes based on the Soviets' actions, and B reflects the USSR payoff based on the US's actions. - The coefficients in the functions (-10q, -2q, -10q, -8q) represent the sensitivity of payoffs to changes in the probability q. The intercepts (-5, 5, -5, 4) represent the baseline payoffs in the absence of a specific action. Prediction: - If Kennedy believes that the likelihood the Soviets are hardline (p) is around 0.5, it implies uncertainty about the Soviets' stance. Considering the expected payoffs based on A and B, both the US and the USSR may face a situation of heightened risk and potential losses, leading to cautious strategic decisions. Examples: - If q = 0.2 and p = 0.5, plug these values into A and B functions to get the specific payoffs for the US and the USSR
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