Question
Sharp Outfits is trying to decide whether to ship customer orders via UPS or wait until after the threat of another UPS strike is over.
Sharp Outfits is trying to decide whether to ship customer orders via UPS or wait until after the threat of another UPS strike is over. If Sharp Outfits decides to ship the requested merchandise now and the strike takes place, the company will incur $55,000 in delay and shipping costs. If the company decides to ship the orders via UPS and no strike occurs they company will incur $5000 in shipping costs. If they postpone shipping via UPS, the company will incur $12,000 in delay costs(shipping cost included)regardless of whether UPS goes on strike. Let p represent the probability that UPS will go on strike and impact Sharp Outfit's shipments.
Suppose that Sharp Outfits can purchase information regarding the likelihood of a UPS strike in the future. Based on similar strike threats in the past, the probability that this information indicates a strike is 27.5%. If the purchased information indicates the occurrence of a UPS strike, the chance of a strike actually occurring is 38.2%. If the purchased information does not indicate the occurrence of a strike, the chance of no strike actually occurring is 93.8%.The informationcosts $5,000.
Two questions:
Question 1: If p=0.15, calculate the EVSI
Question 2: If p=0.15, calculate the EVPI
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