Statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident at some time within a fixed 1-year period with probability .4, whereas this probability decreases to .2 for non-accident-prone person. If we assume that 30 percent of the population is accident-prone,

what is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy

Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone