Suppose that you run the following experiment with your roommate everyday:

At the beginning of each trading day, he tells you a range of daily returns within which he is 75% certain that the S&P 500 return on that day will lie. You record the range he reports and compare it to the realized market return at the end of the day.

Which of the following statements is correct regarding your inference from the data generated by your experiment over the last three years?

	A.	If the daily return lies half of the time within your roommates range and the average investor in the stock market has identical beliefs to him, then prices are determined by rational expectations.
	B.	If the daily market return ends up being outside of your roommates range one-fifth of the time, you conclude that he is overconfident.
	C.	You should advise your roommate to be less confident than what his reported range implies, if the daily market return lies within his range half of the time.
	D.	If your roommates prediction range would match with the standard errors of statistical predictions, then the daily return would lie within his range one-third of the time.