Suppose there are three possible outcomes or scenarios for the economy: a recession, normal growth, and a boom with probabilities of 0.30, 0.40, and 0.30, respectively. An investment in General Motors Company stock (NYSE ticker symbol: GM) will have a rate of return of -8% in a recession, 5% in a normal period, and 18% in a boom. Also, suppose that Newmont stock (NYSE ticker symbol: NEM) will provide a rate of return of 20% in a recession, 3% in a normal period, and -20% in a boom.

Based on past observation, it is theorised that auto firms are cyclical: they do well when the economy does well. In contrast, gold firms are often said to be countercyclical: they do well when other firms do poorly. Does the rate-of-return data for GM and NEM support such theory? Justify your answer using a statistical-driven argument