The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven

next year. The miles driven during the past $5$ years are as follows:

a$)$ Using a $2-$year moving average, the forecast for year $6=,$ miles $($round your response to the nearest whole number$).$

If a $2-$year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this $=$ miles $($round your response to two decimal places$).$

The MSE for the forecast based on a $2-$year moving average $=($round your response to the nearest integer$).$

The MAPE for the forecast based on a $2-$year moving average $=($round your response to four decimal places$).$

b$)$ The forecast for year $6$ using a weighted $2-$year moving average with weights of $0\mathrm{.}35$ and $0\mathrm{.}65($the weight of $0\mathrm{.}65$ is for the most

recent period$)=$ miles $($round your response to the nearest whole number$).$

The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted $2-$year moving average with weights of $0\mathrm{.}35$ and $0\mathrm{.}65=,$ miles $($round your response to

two decimal places$).$

c$)$ According to the MAD you have calculated in part a$)$ and part b$),$ which model performs better?

A$.$ the $2-$year moving average model

B$.$ the weighted $2-$year moving average model

d$)$ Using exponential smoothing with $=0\mathrm{.}30$ and the forecast for year $1$ being $3,100,$ the forecast for year $6=$

miles $($round your response to

the nearest whole number$).$