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The file contains the daily closing prices of American Express stock for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the price of
The file contains the daily closing prices of American Express stock for a one-year period.
a. Using a span of 3, forecast the price of this stock
for the next trading day with the moving average method. How well does this method with span 3 forecast the known observations in this series?
b. Repeat part a with a span of 10.
c. Which of these two spans appears to be more appropriate? Justify your choice.
Day | Closing Price |
1 | 88.56 |
2 | 88.98 |
3 | 88.49 |
4 | 88.45 |
5 | 87.78 |
6 | 86.77 |
7 | 87.27 |
8 | 87.28 |
9 | 86.51 |
10 | 86.25 |
11 | 87.22 |
12 | 87.92 |
13 | 88.94 |
14 | 88.54 |
15 | 87.84 |
16 | 87.17 |
17 | 87.38 |
18 | 85.64 |
19 | 87.23 |
20 | 86.82 |
21 | 86.41 |
22 | 84.96 |
23 | 85.01 |
24 | 86.29 |
25 | 86.16 |
26 | 84.50 |
27 | 86.54 |
28 | 85.03 |
29 | 84.14 |
30 | 81.96 |
31 | 81.92 |
32 | 80.12 |
33 | 79.44 |
34 | 81.76 |
35 | 83.17 |
36 | 84.79 |
37 | 83.12 |
38 | 84.76 |
39 | 85.54 |
40 | 85.77 |
41 | 87.13 |
42 | 87.46 |
43 | 87.86 |
44 | 89.05 |
45 | 89.95 |
46 | 90.47 |
47 | 91.50 |
48 | 90.67 |
49 | 91.34 |
50 | 91.48 |
51 | 90.83 |
52 | 90.64 |
53 | 90.16 |
54 | 89.77 |
55 | 89.23 |
56 | 89.68 |
57 | 89.60 |
58 | 89.72 |
59 | 89.49 |
60 | 90.13 |
61 | 90.49 |
62 | 90.54 |
63 | 91.50 |
64 | 91.22 |
65 | 92.07 |
66 | 90.34 |
67 | 90.92 |
68 | 91.73 |
69 | 92.63 |
70 | 92.43 |
71 | 91.83 |
72 | 92.20 |
73 | 90.09 |
74 | 89.14 |
75 | 87.36 |
76 | 89.54 |
77 | 92.24 |
78 | 91.97 |
79 | 92.69 |
80 | 92.89 |
81 | 93.14 |
82 | 93.35 |
83 | 93.33 |
84 | 93.33 |
85 | 92.11 |
86 | 92.09 |
87 | 89.66 |
88 | 87.75 |
89 | 89.66 |
90 | 90.93 |
91 | 89.78 |
92 | 88.87 |
93 | 88.60 |
94 | 86.46 |
95 | 85.27 |
96 | 85.43 |
97 | 86.65 |
98 | 87.05 |
99 | 83.78 |
100 | 83.54 |
101 | 82.71 |
102 | 81.82 |
103 | 81.15 |
104 | 81.42 |
105 | 80.12 |
106 | 81.55 |
107 | 83.14 |
108 | 83.02 |
109 | 84.13 |
110 | 84.41 |
111 | 84.38 |
112 | 85.24 |
113 | 85.40 |
114 | 79.91 |
115 | 77.53 |
116 | 78.52 |
117 | 79.22 |
118 | 77.85 |
119 | 79.27 |
120 | 79.73 |
121 | 80.29 |
122 | 81.59 |
123 | 82.66 |
124 | 81.02 |
125 | 81.45 |
126 | 81.33 |
127 | 80.06 |
128 | 80.58 |
129 | 79.74 |
130 | 79.94 |
131 | 78.55 |
132 | 78.89 |
133 | 80.99 |
134 | 80.03 |
135 | 80.93 |
136 | 80.49 |
137 | 81.28 |
138 | 80.97 |
139 | 82.12 |
140 | 81.62 |
141 | 80.80 |
142 | 79.55 |
143 | 77.93 |
144 | 77.42 |
145 | 77.50 |
146 | 77.83 |
147 | 78.64 |
148 | 79.40 |
149 | 79.33 |
150 | 78.04 |
151 | 78.40 |
152 | 78.86 |
153 | 79.29 |
154 | 78.97 |
155 | 79.19 |
156 | 79.45 |
157 | 80.61 |
158 | 77.03 |
159 | 76.94 |
160 | 76.99 |
161 | 78.15 |
162 | 77.86 |
163 | 77.70 |
164 | 77.20 |
165 | 77.20 |
166 | 76.87 |
167 | 77.16 |
168 | 77.39 |
169 | 77.99 |
170 | 77.55 |
171 | 77.56 |
172 | 78.14 |
173 | 78.69 |
174 | 79.40 |
175 | 78.79 |
176 | 79.56 |
177 | 80.45 |
178 | 79.92 |
179 | 79.87 |
180 | 81.06 |
181 | 80.66 |
182 | 80.46 |
183 | 80.95 |
184 | 79.89 |
185 | 79.81 |
186 | 79.79 |
187 | 79.42 |
188 | 79.17 |
189 | 79.69 |
190 | 80.30 |
191 | 79.06 |
192 | 79.09 |
193 | 78.52 |
194 | 78.87 |
195 | 79.89 |
196 | 80.00 |
197 | 79.23 |
198 | 78.95 |
199 | 79.06 |
200 | 80.02 |
201 | 80.47 |
202 | 79.89 |
203 | 80.95 |
204 | 81.06 |
205 | 80.44 |
206 | 79.58 |
207 | 79.58 |
208 | 77.51 |
209 | 77.72 |
210 | 78.40 |
211 | 78.21 |
212 | 77.59 |
213 | 77.55 |
214 | 75.93 |
215 | 76.34 |
216 | 77.31 |
217 | 78.53 |
218 | 78.97 |
219 | 78.54 |
220 | 78.92 |
221 | 79.22 |
222 | 79.30 |
223 | 78.95 |
224 | 78.99 |
225 | 77.01 |
226 | 75.90 |
227 | 74.92 |
228 | 75.11 |
229 | 75.70 |
230 | 76.12 |
231 | 76.06 |
232 | 75.98 |
233 | 75.72 |
234 | 75.59 |
235 | 75.00 |
236 | 79.72 |
237 | 81.26 |
238 | 81.34 |
239 | 81.00 |
240 | 80.76 |
241 | 80.91 |
242 | 81.00 |
243 | 81.24 |
244 | 80.95 |
245 | 78.76 |
246 | 77.03 |
247 | 74.65 |
248 | 73.52 |
249 | 75.63 |
250 | 76.88 |
251 | 76.65 |
252 | 76.72 |
253 | 74.00 |
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