The following is an excerpt from a Fortune Magazine interview on August 18, 1997, between Barton Biggs, then Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asset Management and widely regarded as a top strategist, and Robert Farrell, then Senior Investment Advisor at Merrill Lynch and considered a leading market timer.

Biggs: My view is that were at the very tag end of a super bull marketits very late in the game. That means the prudent personshould assume that over the next ve to ten years the total return from his equity portfolio is going to be in the 5%---to 6% a year range.

Farrell: Not the 15% ---20% weve come to love and expect?

Biggs: Right. Its very late in the game.

Farrell: Trouble is, its looked that way for a long time.

Biggs: Yes, but its never looked as much that way as it does right now.

Farrell: This is the longest period weve ever had with such high returns from equitiesI dont know if returns going forward will be 7% or 8%, but Im pretty sure they will be below average.

However, Biggs & Farrells super bull market continued and returns increased even more---until the crash of the dot com boom in early 2000. During the years for 1997, 1998, and 1999, US equity market returns remained above 20% annually.

Select the belief perseverance bias Biggs & Farrell had from the following options and provide your reasoning.

1. Conservatism bias
2. Confirmation bias
3. Representativeness bias