The Kandla Port has unloaded large quantities of grain from ships during the past 8 quarters. The
Question:
The Kandla Port has unloaded large quantities of grain from ships during the past 8 quarters. The port’s operations manager wants to forecast for the future based on the following methods and calculate the errors.
Quarter | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Actual tonnage unloaded | 180 | 168 | 129 | 175 | 190 | 205 | 180 | 182 |
a.Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using Naive method
b.Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using 4 period moving average
c.Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using 4 period weighted moving average using weights as 0.4, 0.3,0.2,0.1.
d.Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th quarter using exponential smoothing with constant 0.4
e.Forecast the annual tonnage unloaded during 9th, 10th and 11th quarter using linear regression method.
f.Calculate forecast accuracy for the above methods (Error, MAD, MSE, MAPE) and infer the best method for the data using tracking signal.
Operations Management Managing Global Supply Chains
ISBN: 978-1506302935
1st edition
Authors: Ray R. Venkataraman, Jeffrey K. Pinto