The owner of Wine Sales & Service wants to forecast wine demand. Demand for the preceding four years is shown in the following table. Forecast demand for next year using:

$($i$)$ Exponential smoothing with an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}4($Assume Yr$.1$ forecast $=805).$

$($ii$)$ Calculate MAD

$($iii$)$ Use solver to determine the best alpha to minimize the error $($MAD$)$

Year Demand$(000$ cases$)$

$1809$

$2810$

$3808$

$4812$