The probability of moving between states is provided in Table 1 (to start we will assume death rate is fixed over time)

Transition	Annual probability
FEV1 70% to FEV1 70%	84%
FEV1 70% to FEV1 40-69%	11%
FEV1 70% to FEV1 <40%	0%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 70%	12%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 40-69%	74%
FEV1 40-69% to FEV1 <40%	9%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 70%	3%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 40-69%	9.6%
FEV1 <40% to FEV1 <40%	82%
Probability transplant/year (FEV1	0.4%
Death	5%

1. Complete the transition matrix for patients in the model:

From/to	FEV1 70%	FEV1 40-69%	FEV1 <40%	Post-transplant	Death
FEV1 70%
FEV1 40-69%
FEV1 <40%
Post-transplant	-	-	-
Death	-	-	-	-