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The US Anti-Doping Agency is considering using a new saliva test for detecting the use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDS) in athletes (currently tested

The US Anti-Doping Agency is considering using a new saliva test for detecting the use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDS)

The US Anti-Doping Agency is considering using a new saliva test for detecting the use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDS) in athletes (currently tested using urine or blood samples). The USADA estimates that about 2% of athletes are using PEDS. The saliva test is 98% accurate in detecting drug use but has a 3% false positive rate. What is the probability that a person that has positive test is actually using PEDS?

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