Question
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Provide a full 5 year forecast given the following:
ABC Ltd had sales this year of $36,333 which are expected to increase for the next 2 years at 4% and 2% for the following 3 years. ATO is expected to hold steady at 1.2 from next year as will the profit margin of 11%. The WACC is 6.1%, return on equity is 6.4% and the after tax cost of debt is 4%. Tax is 30% and the dividend payout ratio is 67%. Assets currently stand at $22,388 and Equity is $18428.
1.Forecast sales Sales growth rate - estimated Sales 2.Forecast ATO and calculate NOA forecast ATO Calculate NOA (NOA=sales/ATO) 3.Revise sales forecasts 4.Forecast PM and calculate NOPAT Forecast PM Calculate NOPAT (NOPAT = Sales x PM) 5.Forecast any other operating income (unusual items) 6.Calculate free cash flow (NOPAT - change in NOA) change in NOA calculate FCF 7.Forecast net dividend payout estimated as a % of NOPAT 8.Calculate net payments to debt holders payments = FCF - dividend 9.Forecast cost of debt and debt balance Forecast cost of debt after tax Opening debt balance Calculate cost of debt (net financing after tax) Calculate closing debt (opening + interest - repayment) check leverage (doa ratio) 10.Calculate comprehensive income NOPAT - NFEAT 11.Calculate equity (and check it works both ways) equity = assets - liabilities closing equity = opening equity + income - dividend 1.Forecast sales Sales growth rate - estimated Sales 2.Forecast ATO and calculate NOA forecast ATO Calculate NOA (NOA=sales/ATO) 3.Revise sales forecasts 4.Forecast PM and calculate NOPAT Forecast PM Calculate NOPAT (NOPAT = Sales x PM) 5.Forecast any other operating income (unusual items) 6.Calculate free cash flow (NOPAT - change in NOA) change in NOA calculate FCF 7.Forecast net dividend payout estimated as a % of NOPAT 8.Calculate net payments to debt holders payments = FCF - dividend 9.Forecast cost of debt and debt balance Forecast cost of debt after tax Opening debt balance Calculate cost of debt (net financing after tax) Calculate closing debt (opening + interest - repayment) check leverage (doa ratio) 10.Calculate comprehensive income NOPAT - NFEAT 11.Calculate equity (and check it works both ways) equity = assets - liabilities closing equity = opening equity + income - dividend
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