This week, we talk about probability and define it as the likelihood of certain events that are unpredictable in the short term but that follow a pattern in the long term.In the next few weeks,we will begin to explore probability in a much deeper sense - both directly and indirectly.

At the heart of the probability discussion will be this simple question: how low is low?

Now, that might sound like a question that you hear on a dance floor or roller skating rink when they bust out the limbo stick. In terms of statistics, the concept is actually quite similar.

At some point with probability, the idea of "low" comes to a tipping point. Essentially, at some point, we are challenged to think about probability in terms of "that's really low - that could never happen!" and "wow, that's quite high - I actually believe that could happen!"

Consider these events:

• Flip a coin, hope for heads.
• Sign up for stats class, hope to pass.
• Packers win the next Super Bowl.
• You get a raise at your next review.
• WWIII happens.
• You win the next big lottery.
• Donald Trump runs for re-election.
• Your car starts the next time you get in it.
• Your child goes to bed tonight without a fuss.

All of these things have a certain amount of risk or probability associated with them. I think we can agree that some are likely and some are unlikely to happen - perhaps much to our chagrin...or excitment.

Now, throw out some values, ie, possibilities:

• 1.00
• 0.01
• 0.95
• 0.05
• 0.01
• 0.0000001
• 0.75
• 0.50

I could go on and on... Not matching those values above to anything I've listed, consider how likely things are in the world. Now, pick a couple of events that interest you - and then pick a random probabilityfrom the list above. What happens to your perception of the SAME probability if you apply it to multiple events?

ie, if I told you that you had a 0.05 chance of passing this class - how would you feel? What about if I told you that Packers had a 0.05 chance of winning the Super Bowl? What if I told you that you have a 0.05 chance of winning $500million this weekend on the lottery?

Thoughts? What's my point?

And key question: How "low" is "low"?