Thomas Bayes had long been promised a graduation present of $10,000 by his father.

Probkm 3 (20 pints): Thomas Bayes had long been promised a graduatiKM Of S 10.00) by his father, to be received on graduation day, 3 months hence. His father had rewntly offered alternative gift, and Bayes Was trying to decide between the two gifts, since his father had asked for a decision by the following day. The alternative gift would be I shatvs Of stock in Satisficing Systems. Inc.. a strategic consulting firm. On the day he Was deciding the stock Was selling for S 12 per share. Thus, it looked to Bayes as ifhe would be wise to take the stock, since its value Was S12.OOO. He would not receive the stock until graduation day, however. and he recognized that the stcxk price 3 nwnths in the tuture was uncertain. With these facts in mind, Bayes reached the following conclusions (probability assessments); extended He was He thcwght I likely to fall the in pri O*min-g 3 it amp SO a I likely S 1 4 in S 14 its current p price. e the val He was only I in S price S I O. was in S i' S 16 wlwn rx-eived it to the 01