Question
To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form a carpool for traveling to and from work. Rona prefers to use the somewhat longer
To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form a carpool for traveling to and from work. Rona prefers to use the somewhat longer but more consistent Queen City Avenue. Although Jerry prefers the quicker expressway, he agreed with Rona that they should take Queen City Avenue if the expressway has a traffic jam. The following payoff table provides the one-way time estimate in minutes for traveling to or from work:
State of Nature
Expressway Open Expressway Jammed Decision Alternative s1s2 Queen City Avenue, d1 30 30 Expressway, d2 25 45 Based on their experience with traffic problems, Rona and Jerry agreed on a 0.15 probability that the expressway would be jammed.
In addition, they agreed that weather seemed to affect the traffic conditions on the expressway. Let
C = clear
O = overcast
R = rain
The following conditional probabilities apply:
P(C | s1) = 0.8 P(O | s1) = 0.2 P(R | s1) = 0.0 P(C | s2) = 0.1 P(O | s2) = 0.3 P(R | s2) = 0.6
(a) Use Bayes' theorem for probability revision to compute the probability of each weather condition and the conditional probability of the expressway being open, s1, or jammed, s2, given each weather condition.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
P(s1|C):
P(s2|C):
P(s1|O):
P(s2|O):
P(s1|R):
P(s2|R):
(c) What is the optimal decision strategy? Choose the correct answer below. (i) Check the weather, take the Queen City Avenue unless there is rain. If rain, take expressway. (ii) Check the weather, take the expressway unless there is rain. If rain, take Queen City Avenue. (iii) Take the expressway (iv) Take Queen City Avenue
What is the expected travel time?
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
minutes (____)
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