Question
Two candidates, Jon and George run for election. You conduct an exit poll but it has some problems. You know that only 80% of Jon
Two candidates, Jon and George run for election. You conduct an exit poll but it has some problems. You know that only 80% of Jon voters are willing to participate in an exit poll, and only 60% of George voters are willing to participate in an exit poll. Also, assume that among everyone who takes the exit poll, 2% of them will lie about who they voted for. Say that you conduct your exit poll and find that among exit poll participants, there is a 70% chance that they say they voted for Jon. Rounding to three decimals, what is the true probability of any voter (not just exit poll participants) having voted for Jon?
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