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Typical phases in the development of a new technology prior to deployment include research and development ( R&D ) demonstration, and commercialisation. In the latter
Typical phases in the development of a new technology prior to deployment include research and development R&D demonstration, and commercialisation. In the latter
phase, a successful prototype is prepared for deployment via incremental improvement
of its performance and cost effectiveness based on learning effects.
Within this context, an R&D firm considering the development of an innovative IT product is commencing the development stage and anticipates that upon completion, it will
be able to sell the new product at price P with expected value P million. However, the firm is aware that the price will depend on the market price of similar products
at the time of deployment.
Through empirical research, the firm identifies that the covariance between the final sales
P and the market return is sigma
M where sigma M is the standard deviation of the market rate
of return. Also, the cost C of the R&D project is subject to technological uncertainty
that will be resolved after the initiation of the project. Current estimations imply that
the cost will be either million or million with equal probability. Assuming a
riskfree rate rf and a expected return on the market rM determine:
i The expected rate of return of the project.
ii The beta of the project.
iii What is the excess rate of return compared to that predicted by the CAPM?
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