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Use Excel sheet to answer the question below: Use Adjusted Exponential Smoothing following the instructions below to produce forecasts for 9/1/2021 1-Start from alpha=0.1and
Use Excel sheet to answer the question below: Use Adjusted Exponential Smoothing following the instructions below to produce forecasts for 9/1/2021 1-Start from alpha=0.1and beta=0.1, produce forecasts for 9/1/2021, then measure the accuracy. 5% 2- Increase the alpha and beta in different increments (ex: [alpha:0.1, 0.25, 0.4, 0.55, 0.7], [beta, 0.1, 0.35, 0.6]) produce forecasts for 9/1/2021, then measure the accuracy 10%. (5 alpha and 3 beta). The total number of attempts is 15 for one vector or 5 per vector. 25% 3- Select the best two alphas with the associated beta based on the accuracy 10% 4-Each time you measure the accuracy use the same accuracy measurement (MAD, MAPE, MSE, or RMSE) 10% 7- Explain your strategy for selecting alpha, beta, and the forecasting process in a paragraph showing evidence (use word document). 15% 8-Show all equations/formula used in your solution and sample of calculation in word document with explanation. 15% Date: m/d/yyyy. 4/1/2019 5/1/2019 6/1/2019 7/1/2019 8/1/2019 9/1/2019 10/1/2019 11/1/2019 12/1/2019 1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/1/2020 4/1/2020 5/1/2020 6/1/2020 7/1/2020 8/1/2020 9/1/2020 Cases 1000 2200 1200 1230 2300 12300 20300 30020 60002 56000 70000 60020 24090 27800 120050 203450 27800 1890 Positive cases 20 44 24 25 46 246 406 601 1200 1120 1400 1201 482 556 2401 4069 556 38 Negative cases 980 2156 1176 1205 2254 12054 19894 29419 58802 54880 68600 58819 23608 27244 117649 199381 27244 1852
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To answer the question we will be using the Adjusted Exponential Smoothing AES forecasting method This method is a form of Exponential Smoothing for time series data that accounts for trends in the da...Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
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